Instability Among China's Leadership Raises Concerns About the Rule of Xi Jinping

 

Chinese Communist President, Xi Jinping 

At the beginning of his unprecedented third term, Xi Jinping appointed a cadre of loyalists to China's top leadership, presumably to facilitate the realization of his ambitious vision for the country.

However, less than a year later, turbulence has engulfed Xi's carefully chosen ruling elite, casting doubts on his judgment and eroding international confidence in his governance. This unrest comes at a critical juncture for China, facing significant economic challenges domestically and heightened competition with the United States on the global stage.

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu 

In a matter of months, two high-ranking members of China's cabinet, responsible for engaging with the world, have vanished. Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not appeared in public for three weeks, fueling speculation of a possible investigation. Earlier, Foreign Minister Qin Gang was abruptly removed after a month-long absence from public view.

Their sudden disappearances coincide with Xi's efforts to eliminate perceived threats and vulnerabilities in the pursuit of bolstering national security, amid escalating tensions with Western countries.

Both Li and Qin are part of China's five state councillors, a senior cabinet position that ranks above regular ministers. Li also holds a position on the Central Military Commission, a powerful body chaired by Xi that commands the armed forces.

Meanwhile, the surprising removal of two top generals has sent shockwaves through the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, an elite unit established by Xi to modernize China's conventional and nuclear missile capabilities, sparking concerns of a broader military purge.

Under Xi's leadership, the Chinese government has become increasingly opaque, offering little public explanation for these personnel changes and showing little interest in dispelling the rampant speculation that has ensued.

 Is Chinese President Xi involved in the disappearance?

Defense Minister Li Shangfu ( Missing )

What's happening in China reflects a significant political risk originating from Beijing," remarked Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore. He continued, "This political risk encompasses Xi Jinping's relationship with his handpicked subordinates and the absence of established rules and norms governing behavior within the system.

Li Shangfu, holding a mostly ceremonial role as defense minister in the Chinese system, lacks direct command over combat forces. Nonetheless, he plays a vital role in China's military diplomacy on the global stage, according to James Char, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. Char added, "If Li Shangfu faces real trouble, it would portray Beijing negatively, having two state councillors removed so early in Xi Jinping's third term.

Since assuming the position in March, Li has engaged in diplomatic activities, including meetings with Russian counterparts and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. However, recent reports suggest Li's absence from diplomatic engagements, raising questions about his status.

A potential silver lining in Li's mysterious absence is the opportunity to mend US-China relations. Li faced US sanctions in 2018 related to China's purchase of Russian weapons, and Beijing has consistently linked any meeting with him to the removal of these sanctions. If Li were no longer defense minister, it could potentially pave the way for resuming high-level military talks between the two superpowers.

The potential downfall of Xi's trusted allies would cast a negative light on the top leader, who has amassed an unprecedented level of power and decision-making authority in recent decades, according to analysts.

Two state councillors personally promoted by Xi have encountered problems within just six months. Regardless of the authorities' attempts to defend this, Xi cannot avoid taking some blame," explained Deng Yuwen, a former editor of a Communist Party newspaper now residing in the US. He added, "There will be questions within the party about the individuals he has placed in key positions.

Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, even likened Xi's cabinet lineup to Agatha Christie's novel "And Then There Were None." He humorously asked, "Who will win this 'unemployment race'? China's youth or Xi's cabinet?" on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

China is already grappling with a range of economic challenges, including record youth unemployment, mounting local government debt, and a deepening property crisis. The increasing uncertainty within Xi's inner circle threatens to exacerbate a crisis of confidence in the world's second-largest economy, analysts have observed.

"Xi's recent high-level purge underscores his belief that ideological cohesion, rather than economic performance or perceived military strength, forms the foundation of a nation's power—a lesson he drew from the collapse of the Soviet Union," stated Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C. "Li's removal may not severely impact China's state relations, but it will undoubtedly reinforce the international business community's growing concerns about party overreach and diminishing transparency in China.

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